Peak oil to trump climate change?

[Patrick]

Peak oil is expected to occur no more than 20 years from now and some experts say that we are already at the peak. Since the serious impacts of climate change will not be experienced for 50 years, why is it that so much of the sustainability discussion revolves around emissions? There has barely been any media coverage of the issue of peak oil. Some environmentalists do not even know what peak oil is. The department of defense has issued a report saying that preparing for peak oil will require a decade or more. Given that the timeframe for peak oil is much more urgent than that for reducing emissions, doesn't it make more sense to direct our energy into figuring out how to live with less oil? If we do that, we reduce emissions anyway, killing two birds with one stone.

[CapGhG]

Originally Posted by Patrick

Peak oil is expected to occur no more than 20 years from now and some experts say that we are already at the peak. Since the serious impacts of climate change will not be experienced for 50 years, why is it that so much of the sustainability discussion revolves around emissions? There has barely been any media coverage of the issue of peak oil. Some environmentalists do not even know what peak oil is. The department of defense has issued a report saying that preparing for peak oil will require a decade or more. Given that the timeframe for peak oil is much more urgent than that for reducing emissions, doesn't it make more sense to direct our energy into figuring out how to live with less oil? If we do that, we reduce emissions anyway, killing two birds with one stone.

Are you referring to peak oil as being the deletion of oil itself or the deletion of the use of oil for energy?

I don't believe the deletion of oil will ever happen but I do expect the deletion of the use of oil (and other fossil fuels) for energy. It has already started and it will accelerate IMHO.

If peak oil is not expected for another 20 years I don't expect it to ever happen....at least we better hope it never happens.

I'm one of those who sincerely believes if we continue using oil at the current rate for another 20 years it will be too late to save our planet and ourselves from irreparable damages. Hopefully that will never happen. If we put all of our attention toward using something else instead of oil we won't have to ever worry about oil running out..... And thats exactly what I expect to happen.

[Patrick]

Peak oil refers to the point at which demand for oil exceeds supply. Oil is a finite resource so it will eventually run out, but we don't have to run out for it to cause massive price increases and severe economic depression (some say meltdown). All we have to do is cross the threshold where supply no longer meets demand, and then prices begin to skyrocket with severe consequences for the entire economy and civilization. Oil analysts will point out that demand has continued to grow, although supply has remained mostly flat for the past few years, with no increase at all for the past year. The "peak" could be anywhere between now and 20 years from now, according to the most optimistic scenarios. Since we depend on oil to obtain everything including the food we eat, it is imperative that we begin finding alternate arrangements immediately. For an idea of what peak oil/energy does to a civilization, just look at Africa. They reached peak energy in the 1970s, ever since per capita energy use has been going down. This is because as demand has grown beyond supply the price of oil has risen and the poorer countries have been out-bid by the richer ones. That the department of defense has begun scenario planning for peak oil and yet our media has remained silent, suggests that the issue is of such consequence that it may incite panic among the masses.

[Patrick]

I should have said that peak oil refers to the point of maximum oil production. Since demand continues to grow regardless of the supply situation, demand would begin to exceed supply once output had reached its maximum limit.

[CapGhG]

Originally Posted by Patrick

I should have said that peak oil refers to the point of maximum oil production. Since demand continues to grow regardless of the supply situation, demand would begin to exceed supply once output had reached its maximum limit.

Hi Patrick....do you really believe the demand for oil and coal will continue as it has in the past even in the face of our present day knowledge of the potential damage it can cause to our planet, and in fact is already causing?

I don't believe it will. I expect the demand for oil will taper off as other new energy technologies are developed and implimented. I refer to the regional MW solar thermal energy plants, wind power plants, hydro, and nuclear energy as well as small kW personal power plants for homes and businesses.

There is a massive explosion of activity in these areas right now and it will continue. There will be no stopping it as the big money men find the huge profits to be made. Our energy industry is being changed and it will never be business as usual as it once was. Oil and coal useage for energy will go the way of the dinosaur IMHO.

[Patrick]

"Hi Patrick....do you really believe the demand for oil and coal will continue as it has in the past even in the face of our present day knowledge of the potential damage it can cause to our planet, and in fact is already causing?"

It can and it will. All projections indicate that demand will continue to rise into the forseeable future. The rapid Industrialization of China and India play a large role and they will not stop until circumstance forces it. Scientists have been saying for years that we need to reduce emissions, close to 30 years. Maybe more. What has happened? Demand for oil, and per capita use of oil, has continued to go up and continues to set new records all the time. Emissions have gone up as well. Witness the current situation with gas prices. Demand for something like oil is not the same as demand for other things. Some things we can go without, others we need. If the price of beer was $100 per bottle, I think most of us would just give up beer. If the price of food went up, demand would remain the same. Likewise with oil. So, even if it was recognized that oil was harmful, demand would not and COULD not drop until a cheaper alternative was found. There are currently no alternatives to oil that provide us with the same amount of energy, on the same scale, with the same price. So demand will continue to rise despite the recognition that it is harmful because people have no other choice. This is a complex issue which I do not have the resources or time to fully explain, and there are many facets to it. I would suggest the website energybulletin.net, they publish articles from a wide variety of sources concerning peak energy and related issues. They have recently posted a good presentation on the subject under the title: "The Oil Crunch, The Other Monster Under Our Bed".

[Patrick]

I should add that I agree we will be rapidly developing alternative energy devices to compensate for the loss of oil but these developments will not keep pace with our loss of energy from oil. There will be an overall reduction in energy production as we switch to alternative forms of energy production. It just cannot be underestimated how much energy we get from oil, and how cheap it is compared with other sources of energy. It also can not be underestimated how dependent we are on oil just to keep society functioning at a basic level, and how severe the effects would be on our economy and way of life from a prolonged oil shortage.

[CapGhG]

Originally Posted by Patrick

I should add that I agree we will be rapidly developing alternative energy devices to compensate for the loss of oil but these developments will not keep pace with our loss of energy from oil. There will be an overall reduction in energy production as we switch to alternative forms of energy production. It just cannot be underestimated how much energy we get from oil, and how cheap it is compared with other sources of energy. It also can not be underestimated how dependent we are on oil just to keep society functioning at a basic level, and how severe the effects would be on our economy and way of life from a prolonged oil shortage.

New alternative energy developments will keep pace with the loss of energy from oil and coal because the dirty energy will be replaced by new clean energy as it becomes available. I expect there will be much more energy conservation than there is now but I don't believe we will actually do without energy where it is really needed.

We have a good estimate of how much energy we get from fossil fuels so we can estimate how much will be needed from alternative sources. This is already being done and plans are already being made to replace dirty energy. It has already been determined that in fact this is possible, and in fact it will become a reality. All we really need to make it happen is for more of the money powers to get behind it and that will happen when they finally recognize the vast amounts of money to be made from a new energy economy. There will no stopping them when alternative energy becomes economically feasible and common sense tells us that will happen as the price of fossil fuels continue to go up and the cost of alternative energies continues to come down. I believe globalwarming will guarantee government subsidies, tax credits, rebates and carbon cap and trade polices/laws worldwide to promote the use of alternative energies.

Your comment "There are currently no alternatives to oil that provide us with the same amount of energy, on the same scale, with the same price" is true at the present time but I don't believe it will be true too much longer. The energy from the sun is abundant, clean, free, and continous. New technologies have already been developed to allow us to capture this energy with the main obstacle being the old oil energy money powers who will continue promoting dirty energy as long as they possibly can. Look no further than the POTUS as an example of this.

I do agree the demand for oil is very high at the present time but I don't believe demand will continue to the point where we will run out of it. On the contrary, I think we will reach a point where it won't be worth the cost of pumping it from the ground and refining it.

[Johnny Electriglide]

"Peak Oil" is an average. The Venezuelan oil is expected to last to 2080. It is where the average cost to pump exceeds the price they can get in any individual field. Prices are up and will keep going up, which will affect the price of food and distribution of total nutritional needs.
We can use bicycles, electric or hybrid cars, but mass farming and food distribution uses high horsepower that only oil can provide in a small enough package, except for biofuels which, to be enough, would use acreage already in use for food. A transition to people growing their own complete nutrition is necessary, but improbable with the cities and sheer numbers. Those without complete nutrition will suffer lower immunity and deficiency diseases. There will be fighting for food, fuel, and water.
The use of coal keeps increasing, and that won't be gone for a long time. The smoke from Chinese and Indian coal plants contains massive amounts of mercury and many other toxics spreading to lethal levels globally. They dim the sunlight up to 20% downwind, and mask 4*F of the total global warming in many areas. Other areas with strict coal plant and vehicle emissions requirements have to spray cloud forming aluminum and barium salts with gossamer copolymer fibers to hide global warming.
The economic outlook is a depression 4 times worse than the 1930s for 20 years before the population crash. Abject poverty, increasing diseases, wars, and continued economic then ecological migrations. As die-off occurs in China and India, there will be far less soot and CO2 emissions. With the already high CO2 levels and the forests lessened, along with methane release increasing, the net result is the masking of global warming will be gone, and temperatures at mid century or so will be up to 9*F warmer than 1900. It will be going up from there with the methane and ocean warming loop.
Peak oil is what will lead to the depression and massive dropping of food production/distribution (along with GW effects, and groundwater depletions, mainly).:peace:

[Patrick]

A quick thought. Coal is expected to last a long time right now based upon current rates of depletion. If there was a massive shift to coal due to peak oil, we would be consuming a lot more coal. If we were to completely replace all oil use with coal use, I doubt the coal reserves would last very long at all -maybe 50 to 100 years at most.