Solar Energy Competitive with Fossil Fuels in Ten Years?

[Karl]

ScienceDaily (Apr. 11, 2008) —

Experts predict that despite oil prices hovering around $100 a barrel, it may take at least 10 or more years of intensive research and development to reduce the cost of solar energy to levels competitive with petroleum, according to an authority on the topic.

"Solar can potentially provide all the electricity and fuel we need to power the planet," according to Harry Gray, Ph.D. Professor of Chemistry and Founding Director of the Beckman Institute at the California Institute of Technology. "The Holy Grail of solar research is to use sunlight efficiently and directly to "split" water into its elemental constituents -- hydrogen and oxygen -- and then use the hydrogen as a clean fuel," Gray said. In his talk at the ACS Presidential Symposium, Gray cited the vast potential of solar energy, noting that more energy from sunlight strikes the Earth in one hour than all of the energy consumed on the planet in one year.

The single biggest challenge, Gray said, is reducing costs so that a large-scale shift away from coal, natural gas and other non-renewable sources of electricity makes economic sense. Gray estimated the average cost of photovoltaic energy at 35 to 50 cents per kilowatt-hour. By comparison, other sources are considerably less expensive, with coal and natural gas hovering around 5-6 cents per kilowatt-hour.

Because of its other advantages -- being clean and renewable, for instance -- solar energy need not match the cost of conventional energy sources, Gray indicated. The breakthrough for solar energy probably will come when scientists reduce the costs of photovoltaic energy to about 10 cents per kilowatt-hour, he added. "Once it reaches that level, large numbers of consumers will start to buy in, driving the per-kilowatt price down even further. I believe we are at least ten years away from photovoltaics being competitive with more traditional forms of energy."

Major challenges include developing cheap solar cells that work without deterioration and reducing the amounts of toxic materials used in the manufacture of these cells. But producing low cost photovoltaics is only a step in the right direction. Chemists also need to focus on the generation of clean fuels at costs that can compete with oil and coal.

Source: Expert Foresees 10 More Years Of Research & Development To Make Solar Energy Competitive

[GreenerPeople]

I don't think it will take that long. I think as battery technology get better and the solar cell techology gets better there will be major advances.

The think I worry about with solar is a major increase in strip mining to get the materials to make the cells and then the disposal of old cells and batteries. We could end up shifting from one type of environmental impact to another.

[Karl]

Phoenix Business Journal - June 18, 2008

A new study makes the case that solar power is emerging as a cost-effective hedge against fossil fuels and is likely to reach parity with retail-electricity rates in most regions of the U.S. in less than a decade. The Utility Solar Assessment Study, produced by clean-tech research and publishing firm Clean Edge Inc. and green-economy nonprofit Co-op America, said that for the first time, solar power is beginning to reach cost parity with conventional energy sources. As solar prices decline and the capital and fuel costs for coal, natural gas, and nuclear plants rise, the U.S. will reach a crossover point by around 2015, the study found.

Installed solar PV prices are projected to decline from an average $5.50 to $7 peak watt (15-32 cents kWh) today to $3.02 to $3.82 peak watt (8-18 cents kWh) in 2015 and $1.43 to $1.82 peak watt (4-8 cents kWh) by 2025. The investment to arrive at 10 percent solar in the U.S. is not small, the study adds, reaching $450 billion to $560 billion between now and 2025 -- an average of $26 billion to $33 billion per year.

"One of the big takeaways from this report is that, in many ways, the future of solar is in the hands of utilities," said Ron Pernick, Clean Edge co-founder and managing director and study co-author. "Reaching 10 percent of our electricity from solar sources by 2025 will require the active participation of utilities along with the support and participation of regulators and solar technology companies." The study, written by Pernick and Clean Edge contributing editor Clint Wilder, is based on interviews with more than 30 solar, utility, financial, and policy experts and leverages proprietary Clean Edge data on solar PV market size, cost and pricing history and projections, and other key market factors.

Source: Study: Solar energy cost will hit parity by 2015 - Phoenix Business Journal:

Related: Economics of alternative energy improve | Green Tech - CNET News.com

[Johnny Electriglide]

PV power has been cost effective for 20 years, depending on location and if you do it yourself. The costs have been slowly rising, not going down, for all the necessary components of a household solar electric system. If you count paying someone to do it for you because of your own inability, then the length of time to pay for itself is much longer. Grid tie systems also cost more.

[natureguy]

Yeah PV rates have been hiked in recent times owing to its huge demand and shortage of silicon. Some great news are here from Nanosolar. Check it out.

Some extracts form Greentech Media's website (forgot the link)

Nanosolar said Wednesday it has created the industry’s largest solar production tool: a thin-film coater that has the capacity to produce up to 1 gigawatt of solar cells annually.

That compares with 10 to 30 megawatts of annual production capacity for most solar production tools, CEO Martin Roscheisen wrote on the company’s blog.

The tool, which uses the Nanosolar’s nanoparticle ink, costs $1.65 million and – at the speed at which it’s currently running, 100 feet per minute -- produces cells for a hundred times less than a high-vacuum process, he wrote.......


.........Paul Maycock, president of solar-electric consulting and research firm Photovoltaic Energy Systems, said the announcement, if true, is very important.

After all, manufacturing costs for thin-film leader First Solar’s cadmium-telluride films are about $1 per watt, he said. That would equate to $1 billion for a gigawatt, with everything included.

While Nanosolar’s $1.65 million wouldn’t include the costs for the whole line, but just for one tool, it implies a “very significant” cost reduction, Maycock said.

“If they’ve got that, they’ve got the world by the tail,” he said. “It sounds like a major accomplishment, but the proof is in the product.”

Maycock warned that an announcement isn’t proof, and added that Nanosolar has been putting out press rele ases for years. In 2006, the company said it planned to reach mass production in 2007 (see Nanosolar to Build in San Jose).

“When are they going to have products?” he asked. “When can I buy them? Show me a product that I can check the efficiency of and can get for $2 or less. I have to adopt a ‘show me’ attitude with Nanosolar, but I don’t say they can’t do it – I hope they do. We need 14 percent thin films with prices below $2 a watt right now.”

[Johnny Electriglide]

The only problem I have heard with the nano-film technology is the lifetime of the panels. What I heard is 10 years, versus the 25 year warranties of the amorphous film Unisolar tech and the various crystalline techs.
In inquiring about panel costs for the new nano-film panels, the costs were high, and the panels large output. I suppose to get payback for than expensive machinery earlier. I think they would do better to lower the price a lot and go with the volume of sales. Perhaps they have already done that, but I haven't seen nor heard of it. Changing panels every 10 years is not good.