Do you see survival as a concept in 10 years?

[daybrown]

From Plato I get the idea that S0crates listened to kooks cause sometimes it was they who thot far enough out of the box to have a right new idea, even if embedded in nonsense. So, I read a lotta postings from those regarded as kooks, and it seems like there has been increasing numbers of them.

Some of it is quite alarming, perhaps nobody more so than Comptroller of the US, David M. Walker, who I saw give a presentation to a national meeting of CPAs. He, and they, know the government numbers do not add up, but figuring out just what they do add up to, is a damn moot point.

When we look at his hard nosed financial analysis now, much less extended out to the looming retirement of the boomers, and look at the propect of coming down off Hubbard's Peak Oil, and reports that it takes 10 calories of oil to produce 1 calorie of food, it dont look sustainable, and simple survival may be in doubt.

http://www.dc-pc.org/farmath/farmath.html gives us some idea of agricultural production in 1885, back when it was done sustainably with draft animals rather than petrochemicals. Even factoring in the Green Revolution with newer hybrids, and wise leadership facilitating a transition away from agribusiness, I'd expect total global food production to fall by half.

Its a complicated analysis based on the ambiguities of what global warming will do. We already see drought in Australia and floods in South America, apparently due to El Nino, which is attributed to climate change. *IF* we have wise leadership, I can see the opening up of farmland in Siberia, Alaska, and Canada meeting the need, but I dont see that leadership coming.

Do you?

[isenhand]

No, the people want their cake and eat it and the politics have the job to make that happen. They try to keep things the same, regardless of what party the come from. Even if they were to try and change anything they have to act within tight limits as they form just one cog in the machine.
The way to move forward, I feel, lies in groups of people working together to form a new sustainable society and networking with each other. In some ways we can see this happening already but not as much as we really need.

[Johnny Electriglide]

It is theoretical that northern regions would have the crop growing climate. One thing I have noticed about these formerly cold areas is that the soil buildup after the ice age was extremely slow. The tundra melt is what is releasing astronomically increasing amounts of methane (23 times worse than CO2 as a GHG) in a self sustaining feedback loop. I think the theory will prove, for the most part, to be a false hope. Population growth so far into overshoot, the decline of cheap oil, the vastness of various pollution and depletions, and climate fluctuation is going so fast that implementation times are non-sufficient.
As far as my website Earthshipvillages on some ocean sponsor (blue-ocean, electric-ocean? I forgot), it was 2002 and 3. Very few hits or interest, even though I have written to politicians since 1994 about making eco-construction, Earthship/strawbale independent homes with alternative power and recycling systems mandatory for all new construction, and discussions on villages remote enough and well defended enough to resist cannibal gang attacks. Over genetic erosion limits, several acres of each Earthship outside devoted to orchards, wheat, grazing, and woodlands. With acknowledgment that only a small percentage would actually survive the long haul. Now with beyond worst case acceleration, the entire biosphere's climate would be non-conductive to those necessary orchards, grazing meadows, woods, and grain fields. The water or sunlight or even wind have more of a chance of exceeding limits for power and water for the recycling water systems. Nuclear war fallout would also ruin the grounds and water catchment. Either way, the very minimum is problems with the common outside grounds being able to grow enough with a minimum suffering of one crop failure every three years. So you need more good land and more storage capability sealed from rodents and other thieves. It is better to die at least trying to survive this way, rather than not giving it a go in a good location with enough good hard working, intelligent and tough people. Good luck.<rockon>

[daybrown]

Thanx to Isenhand also for a thotful, if not optimistic assessment. I too have been online (for over 20 years) and not only not gotten anywhere, seen it all get worse. And I grant that even with wise leadership, the climate may become so much more variable that there's no way that agriculture can cope to meet global food needs.

My own garden was severely hit on April 10, which would not normally have been a problem, but the weeks leading up to it had been unprecidentedly so warm that lotsa plants spouted, Even the Hickory trees had leafed out so much, and have not yet recovered.

I grow several gynecological herbs for birth contol and abortions, and my wild yam in particular got wiped out, and I know it'll be very hard to find a sample in the creek bottoms that was not also killed.

My websites, such as the latest http://www.dc-pc.org dont get many hits and trivial feedback. Nonetheless, I persist in folly. I dont have that much other stuff that needs my attention. But if you click the link there on FARM MATH, you get some idea of what we may be in for if rural areas again will need to rely on local resources to grow food (ie without imported oil or petrochemicals).

It may not come to that; the US is *still* a major producer of domestic oil. But the states which produce oil mite decide to keep what they produce by seceding from the Untied States of Denial. Which is another unpredictable phenomena.