US: Belief In Global Warming Slips

[FabianPattberg]

The proportion of Americans who say that the earth is getting warmer has decreased since January 2007, mostly because of a decline among Republicans, according to the latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press.
Overall, 71 percent of Americans say there is solid evidence of higher global temperatures, compared with 77 percent at the beginning of last year.
Republicans in particular are increasingly skeptical - just 49 percent of Republicans say there is evidence that the earth’s average temperature has been rising, down 13 points since January 2007.
Roughly half of Americans (47%) say the earth is warming because of human activity.
Groups are working hard to raise awareness about global warming. The Alliance for Climate Protection will spend $300 million over the next three years on a global warming marketing campaign
Research Source: Pew Research
News Source: EnvironmentalLeader.com

[Corey]

Changing of the ocean currents from all of the freshwater ice melt off last year could explain the lower temps we are seeing giving us an illusion that its not going bad for us....

also i came across this article which says basically we are increasing global warming gases despite efforts to lower them Monbiot.com » Burnt Out

so we are still pumping locked co2 into the air that has not been part of the cycle of life for hundreds of millions of years....

man I am depressed....:headscratc h:

[Karl]

Originally Posted by sustainabilityforum

...
Pew Research
News Source: EnvironmentalLeader.com

The data set (in the referenced survey) follows a non-linear trend analysis – it provides data for three consecutive months (June – August 2006) and then two later surveys temporally separated from the initial cluster (January 2007 and April 2008). The analysis or interpretation of the data focused on political aspects. However, within the limitations of the data-set, a closer look at the information (see attachment), some very interesting general trends can be inferred.

The proportion who agree there is “solid evidence” showed a statistically significant (>5%) increase within a short time in the latter half of 2006 into early 2007 (with the next result available for last month). So, while the surveys have been interpreted as demonstrating a decrease in percentage of those who believe there is “solid evidence” of global warming – it in fact shows that the April 2008 value (71%) is essentially a return to June 2006 levels (70%).

A closer look shows that, while the proportions who say they agree there is “solid evidence” are back to where they were two years ago, the proportion who believe that this is evidence of human impacts has risen from 59% (June 2006) to 66% (April 2008); with the “believers” who say the evidence is from natural variations, showing a corresponding drop from 30% (June 2006) to 25% (April 2008).

The most significant trend demonstrated by these data is the “spike” which took place over a period of one month from June 2006 to July 2006. As indicated the percentage who believed that there is tangible evidence of warming of the Earth jumped from 70% to 79% (with those attributing this to human activity increasing from 41% to 50% the peak within the survey period – since then it has remained at 47%). The question then, is what was responsible for that sudden increase from June – July of 2006 (which was essentially maintained from August 2006 to January 2007)?

That period of time in particular was associated with a major “heat wave” with record high temperatures (often quoted as the highest experienced since the systematic meteorological records began in the late 19th Century) – further to which the change in weather patterns between June and July of 2006 was both sudden and dramatic (based on my own personal experience of being in northern Europe throughout that time). These effects were experienced throughout the Northern Hemisphere that year (and therefore almost definitely a major factor in the perceptions reported in this U.S survey). The winter of that year (2006) was warmer-than-average, and as such, the public perceptions on climate change did not shift significantly in January 2007. The most recent survey result needs to be viewed in the context of the colder winter experienced in late 2007 into the months leading up to the survey of April 2008 (aside from the purely “political” interpretation). 2008: More Heat Expected Again

Conclusion

Therefore, while over the two years since 2006, the media-hype has accelerated and the political debate has intensified, what the results of this survey actually suggest, is that human perceptions and opinions on “global warming” are largely influenced by the weather patterns that they themselves experience (that is – mainly based on what they feel and not so much on what they hear). Views and opinions on global warming also appear to shift dramatically with changes in the weather. The implications of the trend of (in terms of climate change and otherwise) are probably much more instructive and meaningful than the actual proportions (and attempting to correlate that to the political party to which they are affiliated or support).

The attempt to politicise the survey into “Republican” vs “Democrat” (which may or may not have merit) not only over-simplifies the trends revealed, but also misses some very important points of extreme significance to any debate on climate change.

[rc white]

I would like to know of what relevance to the climate debate is an opinion of Americans that might have been skewed to show a predetermined outcome any way?