There are a lotta good threads that could be followed up here. But the future depends on the success or failure of innovation. I read of a new solar panel process that would reduce the cost by 90%. I bought my first solar panel 25 years ago, and have seen several 'innovations' since then announced promising to reduce the cost. Vaporware. So, I dunno.
More certain, lacking a breakthru, is that while the rise to Hubbard's peak followed a smooth bell curve, the decline will be precipitious, and the crash at the bottom would make the 1929 Wall Street debacle look like a fender bender.
As the price of oil rises, greed will motivate more violent attempts to control it. Which will damage the infrastructure, reduce supply further, and drive the price higher faster, which will increase the greed... and entirely tank the global economy.
We already see comparisons with the fall of Rome. But Rome wasnt built in a day, and didnt fall in one. Long before that, unprofitable provinces were abandoned by the legions, and like failed states now, fell into anarchy and barbarism. Part of the reason that oil production has peaked is the violence already going on to control it.
The collapse of Afican economies has cut their consumption of oil, making more available to the developed nations. When you look at the collapse of Chinese dynasties, the Greenland Norse, the Maya, Chaco canyon, etc, what you see is that as resources get tight, rather than cutting back on consumption, the power elites acrually *INCREASE* their exploitation to convince themselves that everything is still OK. The mandarins never know there's a problem til the bricks in the palace wall start flying over it.
So- unless this energy consumption issue is dealt with effectively, we will see global economic collapse, revolution, anarchy, and famine. Which will solve the population problem.
The effect will vary dramatically depending on where you are. Long before the fall of Rome, the smart money got out and moved to Constantinople. Before the fall of Constantinople, it moved to Vienna. Before the fall of Vienna to Napoleaon, it moved to the USA, and its still here.
More or less. All over my neck of Ozark woods, in the past few years, I've seen rich bastards moving in and building McMansions and starter castles. There is enough stone in the stoneyards along US 65 running north from Conway to actually build a full scale medieval castle. I dunno where its all going, but I note the finely crushed & washed pea gravel drives that lead away into the woods from time to time.
Sustainability in 10 years depends on where you are. Densely populated regions, without an energy breakthru soon, will have only a few survivors fighting over rat roast. Jared Diamond, in his latest "Collapse" outlines the criteria for rapid adaptation to the fall of empire:
1- low population density. Like in Alaska, the Rockies, or the Ozarks.
2- homogeneous population. If there are minorities, demagogues will arise to scapegoat, but if not, then people seek to find solutions.
3- plenty of timber. firewood and building materials that can be dealt with without high tech equipment and support.
Diamond warns against mining areas which polluted the ground water so that you cant even irrigate with it. The good news is that all mining transnationals will no longer be functional. The bad news is that whatever supply you have will be limited to what is local.
Pick the right area, and there will be enough hydro, wind, and draft animal power to grow all the food people need, with life being peaceful, clean, and long. In the wrong place it will be dirty, short, and violent.
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