The sustainability on a planetary level is very much affected by the long term depletions and pollution caused by humans. I know from the 1992 "Elephants in the Volkswagen" studies what the sustainable level was then at various standards of living. My 1995 studies showed that sustainability itself was going down in a sort of delayed mirror curve to the increasing population, now 6.7 billion. Basically the sustainability vector is going toward 0 humans with the accumulated long term pollution and depletion effects, probably in a hundred years. The crash will happen starting in the 2040s. The death rate then will be 800 million per year at its worst. It would take a death rate of 200 million per year with a one child per woman strictly enforced policy, and 90% reduction in GHG emissions, to prevent the crash and following extinction of humans and 87% of all species.
Any thinking that it can be done slower is fallacious. Humans ran out of time last century, and the time to reduce population and footprints easiest was on the first Earth Day.
I don't like it, but the chances for the human species(intelligent sector) to survive and thrive again, next time sustainably, are very slim. Much of the pollution such as plastics are up in the 50,000 year time frame to break down(nuclear pollution is still several hundred thousand years). The depleted aquifers are in the 6,000 year plus range, and the soils similar. The joker in the deck is the methane releases going self-sustaining and heating the oceans to release the methane hydrates at various levels there. If the Earth goes to Eocene Max conditions, then the scenario will be the ELE completion. If methane release is stopped by quickly lowering CO2 and increasing albedo with a supervolcano eruption (not due for 1500 years), then the chances for some humans to survive until the next interglacial epoch are better. The question then will be what kind of humans will they be, ones who understand ecology and sustainability, or sub-human morons whose numbers are only controlled by catastrophe?
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