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Old 29-01-2007, 10:19 PM
Neil Neil is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2007
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Default evaluating risk

Fabian,

Thanks for the link. I heard something on the radio today that suggested that the IPCC will be revising the expected global warming effect on average sea level downwards in the next report. The basis for this is not the discovery of new evidence to suggest that climate change will be less catastrophic, but a methodological change to the calculation of risk. In overly simplistic terms the scientists have been asked to discount any significant uncertainties from their calculations and stick to what is known. To coin the ridiculous phrase - 'the known unknowns' will be ignored.

To me this just highlights the problem of international science. Whilst the pure subject may be wholly objective, the scientists (by choosing their desired research area in the first instance), administrators, funders (for obvious reasons) and reporters (media selling programmes and papers) are all working to their own political agendas in forming public opinion.

The science has helped to galvanise public opinion and we are finally seeing action. However, public opinion can be changed pretty quickly. I hope the report I heard today is incorrect. If not, I hope the reason for the re-evaluation is thoroughly explained to the public. Afterall scientists, generally speaking (apologies to any scientists in advance), are notoriously bad communicators.

There are already one or two 'flat earthers' on this forum who seem happy to pedal the 'climate change what climate change?' wind up line. A significant announcement such as this, picked up, spun and propelled by the tabloids, could even have them believing their own drivel.


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